Faced with Mask s super strict standards, can the Samsung 2 nanometer process be able to afford the exam?

In the comprehensive market, Samsung Taylor crystal factory has a lack of large orders, which has made yields difficult to improve, further pushing up production costs, which is also more difficult to attract large customers and fall into a bad cycle. In addition, due to the low yield and continuous delay in production, Samsung cannot deliver the agreed production volume smoothly, which further affects the customer's trust.

However, through a long-term contract with Tesla, it will help Samsung Taylor factory to get rid of difficulties and bring about a virtuous cycle, attract more customers, and further improve energy utilization and yield.

Peter Lee, a semiconductor analyst at Citigroup, pointed out that AI6 chips are expected to support Tesla's visual AI model training plan. The production of this chip will help Samsung's internal AI chip production capabilities and attract other AI customers. In addition, Tesla has extremely high demands on suppliers, so choosing Samsung as an OEM partner will help Samsung win orders from other large technology companies.

Some analysts believe that although this order will not allow Samsung to convert profits in the short term, obtaining "reference customers" in advanced processes will become an important springboard for contending to continue orders. Yuanda Securities researchers expect Samsung's crystalline foundry capacity utilization rate in the United States will increase, and the visible will also increase. This is a positive development.

After this, Samsung also stated that it will strengthen 2-nanometer technology to accelerate the competition for more customer orders. "We have completed the reliability assessment of the first-generation 2-nanometer process and are ready to make rapid progress in mass production. This time, it successfully obtained the Tesla 2-nanometer order, which proves Samsung's competitiveness in advanced processes, and hopes to use this to win more large customers for the Chei Machinery. The US Taylor Factory is expected to be officially launched from next year."

Semiconductor analysis organization SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel has different solutions. He said that this long-term contract also gave Tesla a chance to "repent" many times, especially Samsung's delivery status was not as expected. From a customer's perspective, Samsung's execution problems in advanced processes may not necessarily become a competitor of Taiwan Electric.

The outside world also speculates that Samsung has made too much profit after signing up with Tesla? Professor Lee Jong-hwan of Seoul Xiangming University guessed that Samsung's current yield is relatively low and it is desperate to get customer orders. Therefore, the contract conditions discussed with Tesla may not be favorable to Samsung.

According to the Korean and North Korean daily report, Tesla chose Samsung again because of its "cost-effectiveness" and "service thinking". Previous market news came out that Samsung's process price was more than 20% cheaper than Taiwan's electricity. In order to obtain orders, Samsung also convinced Tesla at a price close to the production cost, and accepted the conditions set by the latter, such as prototype development costs, production costs from manufacturing to packaging, and production facilities.

Insiders also speculated that another reason may be related to the production capacity. If Tesla insists on producing AI6 chips in the United States, Samsung may mainly benefit from the production capacity of Taiwan Electric's Asia-Rizona factory. Taiwan Power is currently responsible for the foundry of Tesla AI5 chips, and it is not ruled out that Tesla intends to create competition among suppliers.

IC Designers analyzed that dual supply chains themselves are a common practice in the industry. In addition, Samsung also needs to order orders to train soldiers. It is estimated that even if the victims are profitable, they must raise the yield of 2 nanometers.

However, an industry insider who is familiar with the operating conditions of Taiwan Electric Power revealed that Taiwan Electric Power will not compete for price for this order, especially in the current demand situation. Interestingly, another industry insider who is familiar with Tesla believes that Telco actually wants to win this order because Apple is no longer a growth company, and Tesla has opportunities to grow in the fields of humanoid robots and self-taxis. If Telco wins this contract, it will definitely find a way to find a production capacity to meet the needs.

Currently, the yield rate of NT$2 nanometers exceeds 65%, while Samsung 2 nanometers falls at about 40%. However, Korean media firmly believe that the signing of a contract with Tesla means that Samsung's yield rate has a chance to exceed 60%, and its performance is enough to ensure that Tesla's requirements are met..

According to Tesla's executive Mask's statement, Samsung has agreed to let Tesla intervene and help maximize manufacturing efficiency. In other words, Mask will supervise the production line to speed up progress. Semiconductors believe that this move may weaken the neutrality of professional OEM factories, and the prediction is a condition that Taiwan does not want to cooperate.

Professor Lee Jong-hwan believes that to cooperate with Tesla's extremely demanding external partners, Samsung needs to undergo a huge change. "Samsung's main business memory chips are produced and sold after they are finished, but the crystal OEM business is different, and it must start production after receiving the order. If Samsung is to succeed, it must reform its corporate culture and become more centered on customers and engineers."

It is worth noting that Mask previously suggested that another contract may be added, with USD 16.5 billion being the minimum contract amount, and the actual amount will be several times higher. Therefore, if Samsung fully produces volume, it is expected to ensure that it will receive at least $2 billion in annual revenue.